Tactics and Statistics: Look out Sir Rolls, why you should always take them...
Something came up in a recent game regarding Look out sir (LOS) rolls.
I now think you should always take them. Here's why...
Statistically, having an independent character means you succeed a LOS on a 2+. This means that if they have a decent armour save like marines or terminators it makes this roll more like a basic dangerous terrain roll. The difference being that this is a roll that you can choose to make. It actually makes you more survivable. In most marine armies the independent character (IC) has a 2+ or a 3+ armor save. In the case of a 2+ LOS and 2+save this improves your survivability to 1/36. On a 3+ character (and if marines are behind him its a 3+ squad behind him) then failing the LOS becomes a 1/6*2/3 = 1/9 which is an amazing sucess rate which is applied to the whole squad. The mechanism here is that the character at the front is actually acting to improve his own saving throw. This ends up benefitting the squad behind him since it means that statistically speaking they will end up seeing fewer shots hit them since the failed LOS rolls mean that the model makes a second save. Since the models in the unit itself will have to use their regular save they will not lose out by failing their save since they are in the same predicament if the character isn't present. The difference is that the character is actually improving his own saving throw, which will inevitably benefit the models behind him.
With non-Id characters, (sergents/apothecaries/champions) the bump is less but still important. Take a ravenwing sergent passing a LOS roll requires a 4+, and he has 3+ save. this means that before the sergent dies the squad is benefitting from a 1/2* 1/3 = 1/6 save. In the case of terminator sergents 1/2*1/6= 1/12 which is really boosting the whole squad in terms of survivability.
Obviously there are situations where this becomes a more complicated decision such as times when their are low AP weapons or the character has multiple wounds and their is Feel No Pain character in the squad or the special weapon marines in the squad are needed to overcome a particular enemy. At times like these you may decide to change how you take your saving throws. Just remember that when taking saves against weapons that allow you a save, place those characters in front!
In combat this is equally important as the same benefit applies, since wounds must be directed at models in base to base contact first. Of course a new dynamic becomes important, challenges, and in 7th ed wounds now overflow, so it is more important than ever to place powerful characters in challenges, that can win the challenges. Means that having two characters in a combat becomes extremely beneficial, for all the same reasons as described above. LOS provides a survival benefit to the whole squad.
I now think you should always take them. Here's why...
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| While not a great example of the described effect below (sergent isn't in front), making saves does feel really good. |
Statistically, having an independent character means you succeed a LOS on a 2+. This means that if they have a decent armour save like marines or terminators it makes this roll more like a basic dangerous terrain roll. The difference being that this is a roll that you can choose to make. It actually makes you more survivable. In most marine armies the independent character (IC) has a 2+ or a 3+ armor save. In the case of a 2+ LOS and 2+save this improves your survivability to 1/36. On a 3+ character (and if marines are behind him its a 3+ squad behind him) then failing the LOS becomes a 1/6*2/3 = 1/9 which is an amazing sucess rate which is applied to the whole squad. The mechanism here is that the character at the front is actually acting to improve his own saving throw. This ends up benefitting the squad behind him since it means that statistically speaking they will end up seeing fewer shots hit them since the failed LOS rolls mean that the model makes a second save. Since the models in the unit itself will have to use their regular save they will not lose out by failing their save since they are in the same predicament if the character isn't present. The difference is that the character is actually improving his own saving throw, which will inevitably benefit the models behind him.
With non-Id characters, (sergents/apothecaries/champions) the bump is less but still important. Take a ravenwing sergent passing a LOS roll requires a 4+, and he has 3+ save. this means that before the sergent dies the squad is benefitting from a 1/2* 1/3 = 1/6 save. In the case of terminator sergents 1/2*1/6= 1/12 which is really boosting the whole squad in terms of survivability.
Obviously there are situations where this becomes a more complicated decision such as times when their are low AP weapons or the character has multiple wounds and their is Feel No Pain character in the squad or the special weapon marines in the squad are needed to overcome a particular enemy. At times like these you may decide to change how you take your saving throws. Just remember that when taking saves against weapons that allow you a save, place those characters in front!
In combat this is equally important as the same benefit applies, since wounds must be directed at models in base to base contact first. Of course a new dynamic becomes important, challenges, and in 7th ed wounds now overflow, so it is more important than ever to place powerful characters in challenges, that can win the challenges. Means that having two characters in a combat becomes extremely beneficial, for all the same reasons as described above. LOS provides a survival benefit to the whole squad.
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